August 12, 2020

Next year's economic growth target confirms the downward revision of the new normal form into a big logic

Abstract The Central Economic Work Conference came to a close yesterday. The "new normal" was positioned as "the big logic of China's economic development in the current and future period", which means that the curtain of the new stage and new situation of China's economy has officially opened. Xinhua News Agency said that the meeting raised the economy from nine aspects...
The Central Economic Work Conference came to a close yesterday, and the "new normal" was positioned as "the big logic of China's economic development in the current and future period." This means that the curtain of the new stage and new situation of the Chinese economy has officially opened.

The Xinhua News Agency said that the meeting put forward the normal state of economic development from nine aspects, and comprehensively and profoundly revealed new features in consumption, market, resources, industry, population, environment, etc., and proposed to strive to maintain stable economic growth in 2015. We have actively found five major tasks, such as nurturing new growth points. At the same time, we have proposed a series of goals and reforms aimed at loosening the market and promoting reform and opening up.

The "First Financial Daily" learned from several authoritative sources that the GDP growth target set next year at the Central Economic Work Conference has been lowered compared with this year, but it is also within the general expectations of the market. Some close high-level people told this newspaper that this meeting for the first time integrates the "new normal" thinking into the policy formulation, and the basis of and recognition of the "new normal" is the most important logic in the future, and will also bring some traditional ruling ideas. A fundamental change.

In addition, some market analysts told the newspaper yesterday that the international layout and go-out strategy revealed by the meeting deserves attention. The central government has made the judgment that "the world economic growth rate may pick up slightly". Whether it is the "Belt and Road", the promotion of the free trade zone strategy, or the emphasis on balancing internal and external demand, import and export, it reflects the centrality in the complex internal and external environment. The forward-looking nature of the deployment.

"New Normal" officially became the logic of the economy

The meeting that ended yesterday was the first central economic work conference after General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed and elaborated the "new normal." At this meeting, the "new normal" officially became the consensus of the party Central Committee and will become a major logic for economic development in the coming period.

The meeting held that scientific understanding of the current situation and accurate analysis of future trends must historically and dialectically understand the stage characteristics of China's economic development and accurately grasp the "new normal" of economic development.

In expounding the specific "new normal", the meeting selected consumer demand, investment demand, export and balance of payments, production capacity and industrial organization, comparative advantage of production factors, market competition characteristics, resource and environmental constraints, economic risk accumulation and resolution. New changes in nine aspects, such as resource allocation mode and macro-control mode, are elaborated.

Based on the above-mentioned trend changes, the meeting believes that China's economy is evolving to a more advanced stage, a more complex division of labor, and a more rational structure. Economic development has entered a "new normal" and is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth. The speed-type extensive growth has turned to the quality-efficiency intensive growth, and the economic structure is shifting from incremental capacity expansion to adjustment of stocks and deep adjustment of superior and incremental growth. The economic development momentum is shifting from the traditional growth point to the new growth point.

Authors close to the official told the newspaper yesterday that the "new normal" proposal and systematic elaboration are an important contribution to the economic development theory of developing countries and a richness of the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Compared with the past, the connotation of the "new normal" from nine aspects is the further deepening and systematization of the general secretary's explanation on the growth rate, structure and motivation at the APEC meeting, revealing the economic slowdown and structure. The root causes of transformation and power conversion reveal new phase characteristics of the specific connotation of the strategic opportunity period.

In the above context, the formulation of the economic growth target first uses the logic of the “new normal”. Many people who confirmed to the newspaper that the economic growth target will be lowered next year said that the decline in the number of tolerances and the emphasis on improving quality and efficiency are based on China's reality and future judgment.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's economy grew by 7.4% year-on-year. Urban employment continued to increase, consumer prices were generally stable, and money and credit growth was stable. Officials believe that major economic indicators are in a reasonable range, but they also acknowledge that there is downward pressure on economic operations.

The meeting also pointed out that it is necessary to reasonably determine the main expected goals of economic and social development, maintain flexibility in interval regulation, stabilize and improve macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement targeted regulation and structural regulation.

The authors close to the official authorities believe that there should be three aspects to understanding the expected growth rate under the “new normal”: First, regardless of the expected target, it is an expected indicator, not a binding indicator. Second, it needs to be linked to the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and maintain a certain growth rate, but it will not stretch the economic relations in all aspects. Third, and more importantly, while maintaining medium- and high-speed growth, it will promote Transformation and upgrading, the growth point and economic structure corresponding to the expected growth target under the “new normal” are different from the past, and are not the same adjustment of the original growth point and economic structure.

Stable growth and structural balance

On the "new normal" consensus, the meeting put forward five major tasks for economic work next year, including: striving to maintain stable economic growth; actively discovering new growth points; accelerating the transformation of agricultural development patterns; optimizing the spatial pattern of economic development; strengthening safeguards and improving People's livelihood work.

The authors close to the official authorities believe that the five major tasks fundamentally reflect the unity of reform and development. To maintain stable macroeconomic growth, we need innovative macroeconomic regulation and control methods; to explore new growth points, we need to rely on market forces and innovative policy instruments; for the development of agriculture, we must change the mode of agricultural development, improve efficiency, and reduce Pollution; the formation of a rational spatial pattern of economic development, which can not only breed new growth poles and growth zones, but also drive market integration and the full flow of factors.

The reporter combed and compared the main tasks of the Central Economic Work Conference in the past few years and found that “trying to maintain stable economic growth” and “actively discovering new growth points” is not only a novel formulation, but also fits the current macroeconomics. The latest situation. The close seniors mentioned in the opening paragraph said that the entire meeting emphasized the current focus, and there are many areas and formulations for innovation and breakthrough.

Specifically, the meeting proposed “the key is to maintain a stable growth and balance the structure”, stressing the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Positive fiscal policies must be strong, and monetary policy should pay more attention to moderate and moderate.

In nurturing new growth points, the meeting proposed three major policies: market survival, innovation and policy, and policy broadening, and the exploration of a large number of economic growth points with great potential for cultivation.

Another official think tank said to the newspaper that several major tasks have fully reflected the central government's thinking of "stable growth, restructuring, promoting reform, and benefiting the people's livelihood". The composition and sequence of these also reflect the priorities and priorities of economic work next year. Key arrangements.

Reform will enter the implementation year

Guan Qingyou, executive director of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute [microblogging] believes that 2013 is the year of reform, 2014 is the year of reform planning, and 2015 is the year of reform. "Self-revolution", the reform efforts are worth looking forward to.

By combing the contents of the meeting, we can find that reforms involving government functions, financial systems, state-owned enterprises, and opening up are mentioned. Among them, it is specifically proposed to speed up the reforms in the areas of administrative examination and approval, investment, price, monopoly industries, franchising, government purchase services, capital markets, private bank access, and foreign investment, so that reform measures can be effectively transformed into development momentum; The problem is to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, to strengthen the vitality of enterprises and improve efficiency; to more actively promote the balance between domestic demand and external demand, the balance of import and export, the introduction of foreign investment and foreign investment, gradually realize the basic balance of international payments, and build an open economy. New system.

In the deployment of the pace of reform, the meeting proposed to carry out reforms around solving the outstanding problems facing development, launching reform measures that have both annual characteristics and long-term institutional arrangements, and continue to make efforts to formulate various reform plans.

Some scholars have told the newspaper that under the background of expanding domestic demand and tapping new economic growth points, the relevant reforms on "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" are worth looking forward to, because this policy will play an irreplaceable role in maintaining growth and transformation and upgrading. The role.

Finally, the meeting stressed the need to carefully plan to use the great resilience, potential and maneuvering space of China's economy, rely on the reform and reform structure, unremittingly promote economic development, improve quality and efficiency, and strive to achieve speed control without reducing potential and increasing quantity. excellent. It is necessary to coordinate the expansion of domestic and foreign demand, simultaneously promote new industrialization, informationization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, strengthen support for the real economy, vigorously strengthen ecological environmental protection, pay more attention to people's livelihood improvement and social construction, and effectively enhance the driving force of domestic demand for economic growth. Implement a new round of high-level opening up to the outside world, maintain rapid economic growth, and promote economic development to the mid-to-high end level.

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